While I admittedly find the analytics community in the NBA world slightly annoying at times, the reality is statistics do play a huge part in understanding the game if used with the proper context. Although I do like to rely on my own “eye test”, the truth is, we all have internal biases that skew our perception of certain players, teams, or even playing styles. With that being said, the elephant in the room must be addressed: statistics can always be used in a way that will fit a particular narrative. Something that bothers me more than anything is when players find themselves labeled with titles like “inefficient” and “volume scorers” because people don’t take the time to properly understand the meaning of the statistics that they’re looking at.
A perfect example of a guy that has found himself getting lots of negative attention in the mainstream media for “inefficient”, “hero” ball as of late is Trae Young. But is he really playing inefficient basketball compared to the other superstars in the league? Using eFG% (adjusts for the fact that 3-point field goals are worth 50% more than 2-point field goals) and TS% (gauges shooting efficiency that takes into consideration points scored from 3-point field goals, 2-point field goals and free throws), how does Trae really stack up?
Trae Young: 52.0eFG% / 59.6TS%
Luka Doncic: 53.1eFG% / 58.6TS%
Giannis Antetokounmpo: 58.5eFG% / 60.8TS%
LeBron James: 55.4eFG% / 57.9TS%
Kawhi Leonard: 51.5eFG% / 58.1TS%
Anthony Davis: 54.5eFG% / 61.5TS%
James Harden: 53.8eFG% / 62.0TS%
Damian Lillard: 55.7eFG% / 62.2TS%
While some people will read this and immediately say, “but Trae has the second worst eFG% on the list, this isn’t helping your argument”, this provides little to no context of what the story behind the statistic tells (not to mention, these are the top players on planet earth he’s being compared to). Trae is far and away the smallest player on this list (quick shoutout to Damian for putting up truly ungodly eFG% and TS% numbers for a guard), and his poor shooting around the rim is drastically outweighed by the gravity that his 3-point prowess brings to any game. His ability to extend a defense to half-court, literally, is an effect on the game that very few players in league history have been able to have. Not to mention, outside of Luka, all of these other players are in their primes (LeBron isn’t human, he doesn’t count) and still are no more than 3 percentage points higher. Again, the league average height and weight currently is 6’6″, 216 pounds; Trae is listed at a very generous 6’1″, 180. Luckily, he has shown a continued progression with his floaters, as the Hawks are second in the league in made floaters to the Grizz this season, with Trae often extending his floater range to the free throw line.
Trae’s ability to make 36.0% of his 9.4 long range attempts a game (Harden makes 35.8% on 12.8 attempts; Dame makes 39.6% on 9.9 attempts; Luka makes 31.6% on 9.0 attempts & LeBron makes 35.1% on 6.3 attempts) and ability to knock in 86.4% of his 9.3 free throws a night have his TS% firmly solidified with the league’s absolute best. When you factor in Trae having made 35.5% of his 411 attempts from 25-29 feet and having made another 31 threes from 30 feet and out, you can see how his confidence and willingness to take these shots can completely change the way a defense has to guard the Atlanta Hawks. No one in league history, not even Steph or Dame, have shown the consistent brashness that Ice Trae has in the nightly logo bombs.
Another factor that I think is worth mentioning in any discussion about efficiency in basketball is the acknowledgment of who the player has surrounding them. The Atlanta Hawks’ top 5 rotational players by minutes this season are Trae Young (21), John Collins (22), De’Andre Hunter (22), Kevin Huerter (21), and Cam Reddish (20). Aside from Luka, the only player who is top 5 in minutes played on either the Lakers, Bucks, Clippers, Mavs, Rockets, or Trailblazers who is 22 years old or younger is Landry Shamet (this is by virtue of Patrick Beverley’s numerous injuries this year.) To me, this says everything. The reality is that people were one, if not two years ahead on the Atlanta Hawks’ playoff predictions. The fact that Trae has managed to efficiently score the ball at a pace right in line with the league’s perennial MVP candidates with a rotation that age wise reflects a college rotation is incredibly amazing. While I know it is easy to simply assign “empty stats” labels to guys and then jump back on their bandwagon once the rest of the roster catches up with experience, I hope that one day that logic dies. The concept of assigning blame and discrediting someone’s heroic individual efforts because the rest of the roster more closely resembles a G-League roster is a logic I can never quite grasp.
When push comes to shove, I hope people will learn to stop finding reasons to go out of their way to knock down young players. Trae is only 21 years old and is sitting at third in the league in scoring (29.6) and second in the league in assists (9.3) a night. I hope people can learn to watch young players figure out the right ways to grow as they continue into their primes without trying to discredit them and their statistical accomplishments by virtue of the entire team’s record (LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Steph Curry all missed the playoffs in their first two seasons.) What Trae is doing is abolsutely monumental and historical. Missing John Collins, far and away their second best player, for 25 games was extremely detrimental to their season. And, once again, it was realistically a year or two too early for them to make “the jump” in my opinion.
I hope people can learn to appreciate what Trae is doing night in and night out, putting on earth shattering performances seemingly weekly. In the last 20 games alone, Trae has had a 42/6/15 game, a 45/6/14 game, a 39/6/18 game, a 48/1/13 game, a 38/4/11 game, a 50/2/8 game, and a 37/2/11 game. At this point, I would kindly ask you to read the previous sentence again and tell me that doesn’t sound like some NBA2K stats on Novice Mode. While I understand the concerns around his defense and his high turnover rate (something most young guards struggle with), the reality is that the word inefficient should never be associated with Trae’s offensive game at this point. While you may watch a Hawks game and see what seem to be some crazy shots out of Trae each night, the truth is, he’s good enough to get away with it. I have absolutely full faith that as the rest of the roster around him continues to progress, so will his efficiency (his eFG% is up 4.0% and his TS% is up 5.7% from his rookie year.) All I ask is this, please appreciate his greatness, and as he always says himself, “KEEP THAT SAME ENERGY”.