Turtle
Season Record 3-1 | Leans 2-0
Yesterday we got off to a good start going 3-1 with our NBA picks and hitting both of our leans. For those unfamiliar with the gambling term “lean”, it basically is a play I have a good feeling about but don’t have enough confidence (or supporting data) to actually bet on. On days with a small slate of NBA games, leans can provide additional action for your card (list of picks). When betting on a sport like basketball, it is important to identify trends early on so that you can benefit from the outcomes. Historical data is also a big factor in gambling. The NBA had a very active off season though during which many players relocated. This season it would be more beneficial to look at player specific historical data when analyzing teams with new roster construction.
Which brings us to tonight. Only 3 games on Thursday night with the premium match up being the Clippers at the Warriors. I’ll talk more about this game later but both of these teams fit the profile of rosters with new pieces-along with the Rockets who also play tonight. Last night we focused on unders due to the historical trend of early season totals going under. This is mainly due to new coaching, roster construction, and being in game shape, all of which have a period of acclimation. Identifying the length of this period for each team is vital to handicapping NBA games. So, without further adieu, here are tonight’s plays:
Atlanta +1.5 @Detroit
68% of the public is betting on Detroit to win this game. The one thing to know about the analyzing where the public is on a given game is that the public is generally stupid. Fading the public can prove to be extremely profitable if you know what you’re doing. Detroit is on the second leg of an early season back to back without their star player, Blake Griffin. Although they didn’t have much change in their roster, playing two nights in a row should impact the scoring and overall energy. Andre Drummond and Luke Kennard played out of their minds last night. Drummond is in a contract year so it’s not a total surprise but Kennard hit his career high in three-pointers(6). Don’t expect either of them to have repeat performances. Atlanta has young talent littered across the roster and has the advantage in the backcourt. The spread is so small for this game so the difference could be a couple made shots down the stretch. Give me Atlanta playing spoiler to Detroit’s home opener.
The Numbers
- Atlanta is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games verse Detroit.
- Atlanta is 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games overall.
- Detroit is 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 home games overall.
Clippers 1H -.5 @ Golden State
Clippers -1.5 @ Golden State
My second pick of the night is another road team. Both of these teams come into the season with new roster dynamics. The clippers have gotten a lot better and Golden St has gotten worse with the loss of Durant. The Clippers proved Wednesday night they can win against a quality opponent without Paul George. In contrast, this is the Warriors first game and they will be without all star sniper Klay Thompson. Golden St was an atrocious defensive team during the regular season last year and without Durant and Thompson, the majority of the production will have to come from Steph and newly acquired guard Deangelo Russell. Look for the Clippers, a stifling defensive team, to let Steph get his and shut down the rest of the team. I expect the Clippers to be in control of the game having the best player on the floor, better defense, and better bench. Lock it in.
The Numbers
- LA Clippers are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Pacific division.
- LA Clippers are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games played in October.
- Golden State are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games at home.
Leans
Bucks – Rockets OVER 229
Kawhi Leonard POINTS – OVER 27.5
When it was announced I would be coming on as an intern for Lottery 51, I was extremely excited for the NBA season. I was excited to be writing articles with my friends, excited to be watching my (and Nick’s) Heat win so much that we’ll host a playoff series, and excited to absolutely kill your bookmaker and make you so much money this season.
I, along with my colleague Turtle and our fearless leader Sean, will be providing you with expert* picks this season. I’ll be providing 3-5 picks per night. I will be placing cold hard cash on every pick I give to prove I am in it to win.
*Not an expert. Although my mom told me I was very special once. Take that for what you will.*
I made my first pick two nights ago on the Raptors -7. Without Zion plus the youthful inexperience of the Pelicans, I thought this was going to be an easy win for the defending champs. Boy was I wrong. It took overtime and a dagger 3 pointer from Kyle Lowry to secure the win.
Tonight I am giving out 3 picks.
Rockets/Bucks O230.5
Rockets -1.5
Clippers/GS O227
This is the Rocket’s first game of the year with new addition Russell Westbrook. Defense is non existent, and I think the excitement of a new season takes both teams to shoot, score, and play fast. The Rockets have also caught themselves in the news for non basketball reasons and so they’ll look to change the subject. Plus, the Astros are dead. Dead. Rockets need to play for #HoustonStrong
Clippers and Golden State was a little tougher to pick.but I think Vegas undervalues D’Angelo Russell. He’s really come into his own and will shine bright tonight.
Let’s make some, cheer on the Heat, and most importantly, have some fun.
Season record:
1-0-0.
+.9 units
“You can’t keep me cooped up in here. I am a peacock! You gotta let me fly!”
– Terry Hoitz
– Terry Hoitz