October 23rd, 2019

Turtle

Min/Brook Under 229
This total opened at 222 and has moved up 9 points. This is an extreme overreaction by the public. Early season NBA unders have been a plus trend over the past decade, especially involving teams with new pieces. Irving has plenty of support in the backcourt with LeVert and Dinwiddle but it will take time to gel. Last meeting between these two teams totaled only 114 points. Assuming this game doesn’t go to OT, bet the under and cash out.

Wash/Dallas Under 221
Washington is still without all star guard John Wall and with the exception of Bradley Beal, will struggle to find productive scoring elsewhere. Doncic and Porzingis should mesh well as the season unfolds but will still have to gel. The last meeting between these teams saw the total fly over but that should be classified as an outlier.

Orlando/Cleveland Under 212.5
Orlando -8.5

The Magic should have no trouble scoring against a horrendous Cavs team that was dead last in the league last season in possessions per game(100). Orlando was 25th last season in possessions per game averaging only 101.3. Both teams play at a below average pace and averaged less than 107ppg last season. Also like the Magic and the points if you can find it under 9. Magic got off to a hot start last season and are at home. Getting them at -9 would make it a 50-50 play for me but at 8.5 or lower I see a 57% edge for the Magic. My projection has this game at 108-98 Magic.

Leans(not official plays)
KAT rebound total- Over 12.5
Boston Team Total- Under 103.5